The Colorado River irrigates farms, powers electric grids and provides drinking water for 40 million people. Previous tables (starting in January 2012) are also available. Five-Year Probabilistic Projections of future conditions in the Colorado River system currently extend through 2026. Arizona saw a similar trend, with the proportion of the state suffering from Severe Drought dropping from 12.78 percent to 1.15 percent. Dropping water levels at Lake Mead have caused its shorelines to recede, exposing boats, barrels and bodies. Without those emergency steps, the government estimated there was about a 25% chance the Glen Canyon Dam, which generates power for as many as 5.8 million homes and businesses across seven states, would have stopped producing energy by the end of this year. National Parks Traveler was formed in the state of Utah for the purpose of informing and educating about national parks and protected areas. The lake is predicted to reach an even lower level in the coming months: projections from the Bureau of Reclamation show that Lake Mead could drop as low as 1,024.47 feet by November 2023. The new projections also estimate that the level will drop again to 1,040.83 feet in March 2023. Sun 31 Jul 2022 05.00 EDT Last modified on Sun 31 . Hemenway Harbor will operate on one lane of concrete; pipe mat extension will be installed at 1,064 feet elevation. The forecast is grim the Colorado River has endured a drought for two decades and officials project Lake Meads water levels will continue to fall, meaning that more discoveries will be unearthed. Lake Mead's water levels could reach an all-time low in 2023, projections from the Bureau of Reclamation show. All rights reserved. With climate change, its highly unlikely that well get years of wetter than normal conditions. Drought conditions in the Southwest worsened significantly over the past week, the US Drought Monitor reported Thursday. The lake is now at 28 percent its usual capacity, while during the summer it was only at 27 percent. Since the beginning of December, the reservoir's water levels have steadily increased. Do you have a question about Lake Mead and water levels? Current conditions data typically are recorded at 15-60 minute intervals, stored onsite, and then transmitted to the Nevada Water Science Center Office hourly. Now, keep in mind: That 1,007-foot prediction is in whats called the minimum probable forecast, not the comparably rosiermost probable forecast that Reclamation typically uses to declare shortages and take other official actions. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. The bureaus next consequential report comes in August, at which point it will determine whether more cuts are needed. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. The reservoirwhich stretches across Nevada and Arizona, on the Colorado Riveris relied upon by 25 million people living in the region. Launch ramp access on Lake Mohave will remain stable. The most probable forecast in May suggests we could be in a Tier 2B shortage next year one that will force more painful actions in cities like Scottsdale and Tucsonand a first-ever contribution from California, which already is taking more than its full Colorado River allocation in 2022 to limp through another year with an extremely stressedState Water Project. But the recent projections show it will take a lot more than rainfall to change the dire outlook for the lake. Echo Bay will operate on two lanes of concrete; one lane of pipe mat extension will be installed at 1,060 feet elevation. Lake Mead has been slowly rising now at 1,046.3 feet and is now about 5.5 feet above where it was near the end of July (1,040.6 feet). North Carolina: Financial information about this organization and a copy of its license are available from the State Solicitation Licensing Branch at 888-830-4989 or 919-807-2214. After three months of rising levels, Lake Mead is then projected to drop for seven consecutive months, when it will be at 1,023.71 feet. Forecast; Maps; Severe Weather; Hurricanes; . This cuts water deliveries made to Lower Basin states, which include Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah. ", "There's been a good start to the snowfall season, but it is way too early to know what runoff will look like. Thats 18 feet past the deepest level of shortage for which weve plannedand 13 feet below its last major defense point before the lake completely tanks. Order your guide, either as an ePub ebook for your Kindle or as a PDF version. Previous Bureau of Recreation (BOR) projections anticipated this lake level drop happening in May, but the most recent projections suggest it will occur sooner. On December 1, 2022, the lake's water levels were 1,042.97 feet above sea level, while as of February 1, 2023, they measured 1,046.99 feet. Reclamation only includes about half because thats all the agreements that have been signed. According to BOR's March 2022 24-month forecast, water levels at Lake Mead will drop earlier-than-expected. "The water-supply forecasts look to be above average," Haley Paul, Arizona policy director for the National Audubon Society, previously told Newsweek. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023 and 2024. The full Colorado River system supplies water to 40 million people in seven western states as well as Mexico, and irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland from Wyoming to the Gulf of California. Let us know via science@newsweek.com. "At the end of January 2023, the Basin States are expected to submit a new plan to the federal government, who is undertaking a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) process under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), for reducing water use by 2-4 million acre feet," Elizabeth Koebele, an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno, previously told Newsweek. Florida: A COPY OF THE OFFICIAL REGISTRATION AND FINANCIAL INFORMATION FOR NATIONAL PARKS TRAVELER, (REGISTRATION NO. - Hundreds of firefighters scrambled Monday to prevent a wildfire engulfing an area of rare giant sequoia trees in California's Yosemite National Park. REGISTRATION DOES NOT IMPLY ENDORSEMENT, APPROVAL, OR RECOMMENDATION BY THE STATE. To help RVers explore these lands and destinations, the National Parks Traveler editors and writers have sifted through the National Park System and come away with the definitive RVing guide to the parks. More extreme water cuts are all but certain in the Southwest starting next year including new water cuts for California according to the latest government forecast for the Colorado River and Lake Mead, the countrys largest reservoir. "Lake Mead's water levels have been . Importantly, the Bureau of Reclamations studies are based on historical data from the 1990s a much wetter period in the West, said Eric Kuhn, a retired former manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? The following two figures show a combination of historical and projected reservoir elevations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead. So, the rain has undoubtedly been a welcome water source for the lake. All modeling assumptions and projections are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. All Rights Reserved. Because once the lakes hit these dangerously low levels, its unlikely that they will ever recover. From there, the Bureau projected the water levels could keep declining, before reaching the low point of 1,024.47. Projected water levels are provided typically on the 15th of each month by the. Jennifer Pitt, the Colorado River program director with the National Audubon Society, an environmental organization, previously told Newsweek: "To refill the Colorado River reservoirs, you would need three average years of snowfall without any water use. Let us know via science@newsweek.com. Lake levels are expressed as altitudes the number of feet the lake's surface is above sea level not as depths. 5-Year Probabilistic Projections presented in the tables below are reported as the percentage of projected Lake Powell and Lake Mead operations that fall below critically low elevations or are within each operational tier in the next five years. It stands today at its lowest level since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was president. Pitt told Newsweek that we would need three average years of snowfall without any water use to fully replenish Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Let us know via science@newsweek.com. On February 1 in 2022 and 2021, respectively, the water levels were at 1,067.14 and 1,086.1 feet above sea level. Lake Mead's "bathtub ring" is set to become even more pronounced this year. Drought has a way of revealing things. While July is typically a dry time of year in the region, 2022 was a particularly low point for Lake Mead. However, boaters should expect higher congestion at these locations. The region continues to grapple with mostly dry conditions, and the water levels are still incredibly low compared to the same point last year. If it reaches this point, the lake, which provides electricity to thousands of people, will reach a dire point. That . Additionally, if too much rain comes at once, or too much snowpack melts at once due to higher temperatures, it risks running off into the ocean rather than refilling aquifers where we need it. Do you have a question about Lake Mead? Despite the lackluster outlook for Lake Mead's water levels, the drought status of California, Nevada and Arizona has been alleviated significantly by the recent rainfall. The combination of dry soils, a third La Nina and critically low reservoirs levels is a major concern.. Georgia: A full and fair description of the programs and financial statement summary of National Parks Traveler is available upon request at the office and phone number indicated above. , Projection for end of April 2022 is 1,057.14 feet. On December 1, 2022, the lake's water levels were 1,042.97 feet above sea level, while as of February 1, 2023, they measured 1,046.99 feet. The latest report from the US Bureau of Reclamation shows Lake Mead at just over 1,040 feet above sea level in July, having dropped nearly 10 feet in just two months, and is currently at just. But the rest of the lower basin is going to have to throw it in high gear, if were going to hit our target this year. Sunken boat from second world war and at least three sets of human remains found in largest US reservoir and more could follow. The observation data shown below is from each lake's master . Firefighters put out hot spots from the Washburn Fire in Yosemite National Park, California, July 11, 2022. It would take several years of much-above average snowpack (unlikely given the warming temperatures), combined with drastically less water usage to let Lake Mead begin to fill again.". The recent spate of discoveries began in May when boaters spotted a barrel. California snowpack provides 30% of the states water, according to the Department of Water Resources. appreciated. By January 18, Lake Mead's water levels have risen to 1,045.76 feet. The killing has the signature of a mob hit, the local Mob Museum said, and coincided with the most violent period in Las Vegass past an era of unprecedented street crime and underworld killings. Aridification has led to low soil moisture and reduced runoff efficiencymeaning that even if we get big storms, less of it becomes runoff in the river. The Lake hadn't reached such a low level since it was constructed in the 1930s. Boaters are being advised to check the status of their preferred launch destination(s) on theparks websiteand consider planning their trips to avoid high-traffic times. But in consecutive La Nina years there is a very clear trend toward drier years. The region is already in an unprecedented Tier 1 shortage on the Colorado River, which led to mandatory water cuts that mainly impacted agriculture. If the forecast indicates Lake Meads water level will be below 1,050 feet come January 1, the Southwest will move into the second tier of unprecedented water cuts that will deepen the impacts for cities, industry and tribal water users. The current water elevation for end of March is 1,063.11 feet. Toggle submenu for First Annual Threatened And Endangered Parks, According to BORs March 2022 24-month forecast, water levels at Lake Mead will drop earlier-than-expected. Which lets just call it now is highly unlikely. 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